Passage Brief
Strategic briefing · Is this passage reasonable, and what could change?
Orcas to Coupeville — NAVOPLAN favors Fri night for Deception Pass timing
YELLOW
Overview
This is a short route with one decisive, current-sensitive gate at Deception Pass. Under the current plan (Thu Sep 10, 2026 06:00 AM departure), the passage lines up with a very strong ebb at the gate, which can materially reduce control and schedule margin if anything runs late. NAVOPLAN’s preferred alternative is the recommended schedule (Fri Sep 11, 2026 09:00 PM departure), primarily to move the pass to a much weaker ebb trending toward slack shortly after transit. The brief is YELLOW due to incomplete refuge depth information for Friday Harbor and because the Deception Pass timing must be re-verified before committing. The captain-entered plan remains unchanged unless you revise it.
Plan Assessment
With the current plan, the key commitment is the Deception Pass transit around 7:53 AM local, where the available prediction nearest that time indicates roughly 5.11 kt of ebb—high consequence for speed over ground, control margins, and resilience if the departure, approach, or transit timing slips. The supplied buoy observation near the start area indicates light winds, and the next-24-hour route weather check appears benign; however, that check is not for the same time period as the planned departure, so it should not be treated as settling the gate decision by itself. Crew is listed as 48, so the data does not suggest a solo-workload limitation driving timing.
Key Constraints / Decision Points
The main planning decision is whether to keep the current plan or adopt the recommended schedule to change Deception Pass from a high-ebb transit to a near-slack transition. Under the recommended schedule, the gate is predicted around 10:53 PM local with a moderate ebb (about 0.82 kt) that trends toward slack roughly 13 minutes after transit, giving more tolerance if you arrive a little early or late. The operational tradeoff is that it becomes a night departure, and the supplied data does not establish arrival lighting conditions; if you choose the recommended schedule, explicitly confirm bridge/crew readiness and the onboard expectations for operating at night.
What Could Change / Before Departure
Bailout flexibility depends on refuge options if timing, conditions, or crew readiness do not match the plan. Refuge spacing is relatively close early (Friday Harbor is listed first, followed by Anacortes), which supports the ability to pause or reset before committing to the pass. However, Friday Harbor’s channel depth is not reported in the supplied information, so it should not be treated as fully validated until controlling depths (and any relevant restrictions/notices) are confirmed. Because Deception Pass is the primary consequence point, any change in expected vessel speed or a decision to prioritize daylight operations can materially change whether the current plan remains acceptable or whether the recommended schedule is the better commitment.
Carry Forward to Checklist
- Decide whether to keep the current plan or adopt the recommended schedule, based primarily on Deception Pass current timing and crew readiness for night operations.
- Verify the official NOAA Deception Pass current prediction for the intended transit time (ebb/flood magnitude and slack timing), allowing for realistic tolerance rather than a single exact minute.
- Confirm Friday Harbor refuge practicality by verifying controlling/channel depths and any relevant restrictions/notices, since depth data is not provided here.
The Passage Brief explains what matters now, what could be next, and why it matters. Tactical execution belongs in NAVOPLAN checklists.